01. Is the future here?
Musk gave an exciting description of the future of humanoid robots. He said that if all goes well, the number of humanoid robots will achieve a 10-fold increase in the next three years.
Previously, about the production of Tesla humanoid robots, the market was mostly vague and difficult to discern true and false expectations. But this time, Musk gave a clear number and time phase, which undoubtedly increased the market's confidence and expectations in this area.
What is the market prospect of humanoid robots, we can combine the market to make some simple judgments. But there is no doubt that the potential of the humanoid robot market is huge.
In addition to Tesla, giants such as Huawei and BYD are also actively laying out the field of humanoid robots. Their participation will undoubtedly further promote the development of this market. It can be predicted that the future humanoid robot market will not only be limited to Tesla, but will form a diversified competitive landscape.
In addition, one of the biggest applications of AI is humanoid robots. This can be seen from Tesla, Nvidia, Huawei, BYD, Byte and other large enterprises are actively layout in this direction. These enterprises are giants with a market value of trillions, and their choice and layout undoubtedly point out the future development direction for us.
In the first half of 2025, the industry will usher in a series of major events. Tesla will release its 2024 annual report, and may announce the freezing of the robot program and the determination of the first supply chain at any time. Huawei's robot will also be iterated on the new version, and the domestic supply chain selection will be carried out simultaneously. Nvidia is also expected to announce new products or technology in March. These catalytic factors will further promote the development of the humanoid robot market. It can be predicted that the field of humanoid robots will be full of opportunities and challenges in the future, which deserves close attention from investors.
02. Humanoid robot industry chain analysis
The humanoid robot industry chain is currently receiving widespread attention, with the high-value part particularly attracting the attention of institutional investors. As a key component of the humanoid robot to achieve fine operation, the technical level of the dexterous hand directly determines the robot's operation ability and application scenarios. The driving and transmission technology of dexterous hand is its core, and the choice of driving source has a direct impact on the volume and weight of dexterous hand. At present, motor drive, pneumatic drive, hydraulic drive and shape memory alloy drive are the mainstream drive methods, they each have advantages and disadvantages, suitable for different application scenarios.
In terms of the transmission system, the operational stability and flexibility of the dexterous hand mainly depend on the choice of transmission mode. Connecting rod drive, tendon rope drive and gear drive are common transmission modes, which have their own unique transmission characteristics and application advantages. Tesla has innovated on the drive and transmission scheme of the dexterous hand, using a hollow cup motor with a planetary gearbox, encoder, driver and sensor structure, while choosing a combination of metal tendon rope and worm gear transmission for efficient and stable operation.
In the motor scheme, the dexterous hand adopts a variety of routes, among which the hollow cup motor is favored because of its lightweight and efficient characteristics. However, in order to increase torque, the hollow cup motor is often used with a planetary gear reducer. In addition, frameless torque motors and brushless slotted motors are also common motor solutions in smart hand modules, each with its own unique performance and application characteristics.
In addition to the motor, the smart hand module also includes other structural components such as the reducer and sensor. The selection and design of these components also have an important impact on the performance of the dexterous hand. Force sensors and tactile sensors are used to sense the interaction force between the dexterous hand and the outside world, so that the robot can perform operational tasks more accurately.
In the robot industry chain, PEEK has shown a wide range of application prospects as a special engineering plastic with high comprehensive performance and high added value of products. PEEK material not only has multiple advantages such as rigidity, toughness, corrosion resistance, impact resistance, heat resistance and wear resistance, but also can further improve its mechanical strength and friction resistance through carbon fiber modification. This makes PEEK material an ideal choice for lightweight robot design, suitable for multiple parts such as robot arms and joint links.
In the field of humanoid robots, PEEK materials are particularly widely used. PEEK gears and bearings can be applied to the joint parts of humanoid robots to provide stable transmission and support, and reduce friction and wear due to its excellent wear resistance and self-lubrication, extending the service life of the robot. At the same time, PEEK skeleton can also be applied to the body and limbs of humanoid robots, which can significantly reduce weight compared to metal materials, while maintaining enough strength and rigidity to meet the load and flexibility needs of robots.
With the rapid development of the humanoid robot market, more and more new entrants are pouring into the industry. In the supply chain, many manufacturers have laid out the field of humanoid robots and cooperated with industry leaders. For example, according to Hua 'an Securities research report, manufacturers such as Obi Zhongguang, No. 9 Company and Tianzhun Technology on the NVIDIA chain have cooperated with NVIDIA to develop 3D vision sensors, robot intelligent mobile platforms and physical intelligent controllers and other products. Huawei has also signed cooperation agreements with many manufacturers such as Zhaowei Electromechanical, Hechuan Technology, and Tuostar to jointly promote the development of the field of embodied intelligence.
In addition, traditional industrial robots and automation companies have also set foot in the field of humanoid robots. Efte, Zhongjian Technology, Keli Sensing, Leisai Intelligence and other manufacturers are actively developing and producing the core components and machine products required for humanoid robots. At the same time, some emerging equipment enterprises such as emerging equipment, Jingpin special equipment, etc., have also made important progress in the research and development of intelligent robot machines.
It is worth mentioning that manufacturers such as Landai Technology, Haoeng Shares and Fulin Seiken are also providing core components for the reducer gear shaft, high-precision reducer and joint drive assembly for humanoid robots. Enterprises in the field of military robots, such as emerging equipment, are also actively developing intelligent robot machine products, and it is expected to complete the trial production of the first generation of products in the next period of time. Is the future here? Humanoid robot industry chain analysis
